The Economic Development Index (EDI) calculated by thePolicy Agenda for the 3^rd quarter of 2013 was 0.95 –so the slight optimism (1.11) noticed in the previous quarter has gone – and now each partial-indicator of this index shows again the same less-favourable situation observed at the beginning of the year. Compared to the previous quarter of the year the situation as regards monetary processes is assessable more pessimistically, and there are not any signs suggesting even the slightest change to the positive in the management of households either. Neither permanent improvement nor a rapid evolution of the business management is expectable.
Tovább

A significant rate of cut back on the retail utility tariffs of gas and electricity supply is introduced as of 1 November. The governing parties refer to the Budget 2014 as the ‘budget of reduced overheads’ when commenting the reduction of the utility tariffs by 20% compared to the previous year. The Policy Agenda checked whether the decreasing energy tariffs were really counted with when budgeting.
Tovább

In spring, 2011, to demonstrate to the European Union that the country is capable of obviating the excessive deficit procedure, the Hungarian Government announced the Széll Kálmán-Plan, then a year after the Széll Kálmán-Plan 2.0. By scale these represented restrictions amounting to HUF 1,500 billion. In its analysis, the Policy Agenda checked, to what extent the Budget 2014 reflects the commitments made earlier, and in which sectors did the cabinet give up most of its targets.
Tovább

Now that we are after the budget submission for the fiscal year 2014, the minimum wage negotiations for the forthcoming year, just like the trilateral discussions relevant to the national wage recommendations are also in the offing. On that occasion, upon the commission received from the National Association of Hungarian Trade Unions, the Policy Agenda carried out a survey among small and medium sized enterprises, to find out what minimum wage level the company managers expect and deem acceptable. The survey focused on the institution of the occupational pension which has not yet come up to the expectations hitherto.
Tovább

The SME’s Conjuncture Index Survey, made by the IBS – International Business School – and the Policy Agenda, shows improving expectations among the managers of small and medium sized enterprises. The index grew from 45.4% in the past quarter to 46.4% by now. Although this is still below the business trust surveyed in the first half of 2011, the nadir is definitely behind our back now.
Tovább

Compared to the previous quarter of 2013 predictions the latest statistics show no positive turn, Policy Agenda contends. Thus, regarding the preparation of the 2014 budget we must note that the continuing economic policy, and the positive evaluation of the latest statistical figures in the governmental communication can hardly establish an improving economic development. We think that only a minimal economic growth is likely in 2013 and we assume the increase of the gross domestic product will be slightly over 1% in 2014.
Tovább

When judging the situation of the Hungarian economy it is often stated that the rate of investments is very low in the country and that 95% of all the investments are financed from EU funds. In other words, at present our economy cannot be developed from national resources, and it is also the case with creating new jobs. Policy Agenda has analysed how far the government has gone in creating jobs solely from national resources.
Tovább