The Economic Development Index (EDI) calculated by Policy Agenda since 2010 was 0.98 in the 4th quarter of 2014 that is to say – after the drop of the index ( – 0.29) in the third quarter – the EDI did not worsen further. The development perspectives are uncertain, the business environment seems to be unpredictable and the performance of the financial sector will reduce measurably.
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The SME Sentiment Index calculated by IBS – International Business School and Policy Agenda has further diminished and it is now below the expectations of the 1st quarter of 2014. According to the survey Hungarian managers put less and less faith in the economy.
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One of the least visible elements of the prevailing state budget is the budget reserve. When approving the budget, the representatives give the Government a bianco cheque to be used for spending several ten billions of HUF. This money can be spent freely, on less visible tasks only and exclusively how the Government decides the spending. Policy Agenda has tried to examine how the Government has used or rather has abused this cash since the government change of 2010.
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The SME’s Economic Activity Index, as calculated by the IBS – International Business School – and Policy Agenda has increased again compared to the previous quarter. The figures show that company managers’ expectations are significantly more optimistic compared to the situation 3 years ago and there is hope that this atmosphere will hold in the longer run. However, investors are still not much inclined to assign large outlays to new projects and this calls for caution.
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Policy Agenda and the Hungarian Trade Union Confederation jointly performed a survey at the end of 2013 on the views regarding the national wage agreement reached between the employers and the trade unions, and also made a research on the pay rise planned for 2014 among the SME managers. As figures reflect the company managers are very cautious as for pay rise, and many fear the alleged official sanctions.
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The SMEs’ Economic Activity Index Survey, made by IBS – International Business School – and Policy Agenda, shows a growth by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Figures confirm that the expectations of SME managers have reached the level registered 3 years ago. This fact may raise hopes that the situation of small- and medium enterprises will start improving in the coming months, resulting eventually in sustainable growth.
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Under an agreement, made between the employers and employees’ organizations and the government, next year the minimum wage will be one-hundred thousand forints gross. In this government term this would mean an increase by 38%, which would make us the top players in the European Union. Policy Agenda examined in fact how much the low income earners will get from that amount and in respect of the net minimal wages what position we take compared to other countries in Europe.
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The Parliament has passed the major items of the Budget 2014. The deficit has increased significantly and interesting rearrangements have been made to the budget. Policy Agenda has examined how much the government managed to stand its ground against the party political lobbies in the parliamentary debates and in what items was it constrained to let even in an unprincipled manner.
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The Economic Development Index (EDI) calculated by thePolicy Agenda for the 3rd quarter of 2013 was 0.95 –so the slight optimism (1.11) noticed in the previous quarter has gone – and now each partial-indicator of this index shows again the same less-favourable situation observed at the beginning of the year. Compared to the previous quarter of the year the situation as regards monetary processes is assessable more pessimistically, and there are not any signs suggesting even the slightest change to the positive in the management of households either. Neither permanent improvement nor a rapid evolution of the business management is expectable.
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A significant rate of cut back on the retail utility tariffs of gas and electricity supply is introduced as of 1 November. The governing parties refer to the Budget 2014 as the ‘budget of reduced overheads’ when commenting the reduction of the utility tariffs by 20% compared to the previous year. The Policy Agenda checked whether the decreasing energy tariffs were really counted with when budgeting.
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